Hurricane Matthew – Forecast Discussion

Paulding Emergency Management Agency (PEMA) – HURRICANE MATTHEW Situation Report #4

Oct 05 2016  1130 EDT  Hiram, GA

Discussion

Short-term forecast for Paulding County remains dry with no big pattern change.  All eyes continue to be on Hurricane Matthew and its intended track.

 

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) current forecast shows Hurricane Matthew to arrive just off the Georgia coast sometime between Friday evening and early Saturday morning.

 

At this time we are still only looking for very gusty winds and a chance of some showers this weekend across North and Central Georgia with the majority of impacts occurring along the Georgia coast.  A better time frame and estimate of potential hazards will become clearer with later updates from NHC.

 

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Hurricane Matthew (CAT 3) (Advisory #29A as of 8:00 a.m. EDT)

  • Located 45 miles ENE of Cape Lucrecia Cuba moving N at 10 mph

oExpected to be very near Ecoast of FL by Thursday evening

  • Maximum sustained winds 115 mph moving N at 10 mph
  • Hurricane-force winds extend out 40 miles; tropical storm-force winds extend 160 miles
  • Slight strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days
  • Hurricane Warning

oNorth of Golden Beach to Sebastian Inlet

oLake Okeechobee

  • Hurricane Watch North of Sebastian Inlet to Fernandina Beach
  • Tropical Storm Warning

oFlorida Keys

oFlorida Bay

oChokoloskee to Golden Beach

  • Rainfall: 4 to 10 inches

 

 

Paulding County Status Report

  • Paulding EMA:  Monitoring – situational awareness

(ARES requested to relay reports of damage from affected locations)

(CERT notified of situation – maintaining Readiness for County)

 

State Preparations

Florida:

  • State EOC at Full Activation (Level I); Governor declared a State of Emergency
  • Shelters identified & placed on standby in Miami Dade, Broward, Martin, St. Lucie & Indian River Counties

 

Georgia:

  • State EOC at Full Activation (Level I); Governor declared a State of Emergency- SE Counties
  • Shelters coordinated and on standby

 

South Carolina:

  • State EOC at Full Activation (OPCON 2); Governor declared a State of Emergency & submitted Emergency Declaration request
  • Mandatory Medical evacuations for 9 counties and Mandatory evacuations (estimated 1.5 million people) for all coastal counties begins today
  • 95 shelters on standby with several others forecast to open
  • Marine Corp Recruit Depot (MCRD), Parris Island will evacuate tonight to Albany, GA

 

North Carolina:

  • State EOC at Partial Activation (Level III); Governor declared a State of Emergency & submitted Emergency Declaration request
  • Preparing to activate 247 National Guard members; activate and pre-deploy Urban Search & Rescue/Swift Water Rescue Teams
  • Coordination for EMS Ambulance Strike teams and EMS medical EVAC buses started
  • Mandatory evacuation issued for Cape Lookout National Seashore (vehicle ferries moving visitors & vehicles started)

 

Tennessee:

  • State EOC at Monitoring (Level IV) –Prepared to support potential EMAC requests

 

Virginia:

  • State EOC at Partial Activation (Level II)

 

 

FEMA Preparations

Region IV:

  • RRCC Level II; RWC Enhanced Watch (dayshift only)
  • LNOs deployed to FL, GA, NC, SC
  • IMAT-1 to NC
  • IMAT-2 to FL (supporting DR-4280) will provide additional support for Matthew
  • Hurricane Liaison member deployed to National Hurricane Center

 

Region III

  • RRCC Level II; RWC Enhanced Watch (dayshift only)
  • LNO deployed to Ft Bragg ISB
  • Hurricane Liaison member deployed to National Hurricane Center

 

Region II:

  • RRCC to Level II on October 8; RWC Enhanced Watch on October 6 (dayshift only)
  • Hurricane Liaison member deployed to National Hurricane Center

 

Region I:

  • RRCC at normal operations; RWC Enhanced Watch

 

FEMA HQ:

  • NRCC Level I (beginning Oct 6); Enhanced Watch (24/7)
  • National IMAT-West to Atlanta, GA (Region IV)
  • Region IX IMAT-2 to Atlanta, GA (Region IV)
  • Region V IMAT to Philadelphia, PA (Region III)
  • Incident Staging Base (ISB) at Marine Corp Logistics Base (MCLB) Albany, GA & Fort Bragg, NC
  • MERS personnel & MCOVs to Tallahassee, FL (supporting DR-4280)

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