Latest SPC Guidance on Storm System

Via the Paulding County Sheriff’s Office:

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1068
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0315 PM CDT THU JUN 13 2013

AREAS AFFECTED…N-CNTRL AL AND N-CNTRL GA

CONCERNING…SEVERE POTENTIAL…WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 132015Z – 132145Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE…40 PERCENT

 

SUMMARY…ISOLD STORMS MAY YIELD A LOCALIZED DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
A PERHAPS GREATER WIND DAMAGE THREAT COULD MATERIALIZE IF A CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS OVER NRN AL/GA AND MOVES SEWD.

DISCUSSION…VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A CU FIELD PERCOLATING FROM NRN MS ENEWD INTO NRN AL/GA AHEAD OF A COLD FRONTAL ZONEĀ  OVER SRN MIDDLE TN WWD INTO WRN TN. A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED OVER THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS /PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY/ WILL MOVE SEWD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND CAROLINAS THIS EVENING AND AWAY FROM AL/GA…THEREBY LENDING LESS LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG-SEVERE STORMS.

SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES THE BACK EDGE OF THE CU FIELD CO-LOCATED WITH A WEAK PRE-FRONTAL WINDSHIFT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE DIFFUSE CHARACTER OF THE FRONT AND DISPLACEMENT OF THE WINDSHIFT FROM THE FRONT HAS LIMITED LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND MUCH IN THE WAY OF STORMS DEVELOPING FROM NEAR THE I-65 CORRIDOR AND LOCATIONS W. DESPITE THESE LIMITATIONS…SEVERAL MORE HOURS PRIOR TO THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND MODERATE 3 KM AGL WLY FLOW /30 KT AT KFFC AND KBMX VWPS/ WOULD AT LEAST LEND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A FEW ISOLD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WITH THE MORE VIGOROUS STORMS.

Det. Stephen Michael Dooley, CEM
Crime Scene Investigator
POST General Instructor
SWAT Logistics Element Team Leader
Sheriff’s Emergency Management Representative

Paulding County Sheriff’s Office
247 Industrial Way N.
Dallas, GA 30132
(770) 443-3015 Ext. 339
E-mail: sdooley@paulding.gov

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *