Via Keith Stellman at the National Weather Service in Atlanta, as submitted by Stephen M. Dooley, EMA Coordinator for Paulding County:
Happy New Year and Good Morning Everyone,
We look to be entering a fairly active weather period this week and into the weeks ahead…
Main Messages upfront
- We have a severe storm potential later today and tonight, including tornadoes. SPC has put much of the area in a Slight and Marginal Risk.
- Tornadoes will be possible in addition to damaging winds.
- A Flood Watch has been issued for portions of SW GA…heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours plus additional rainfall may lead to flooding.
- Heads up…Winter may take a shot at us later this week (at the end of this message).
- Damaging winds and tornadoes will be possible along and ahead of the line of storms that develops over MS/AL during the day today and moves in later today/this evening into the overnight.
- Any tornadoes would likely be rain wrapped and/or occurring after dark. We encourage folks to have their methods of being warned overnight on and ready.
- Brief heavy rain may cause some localized flooding, particularly in areas where 2″-3″ fell yesterday. River and small stream flooding are becoming possible..particularly across the Watch area…but we may have to expand it north into the I-85 corridor if the bands of rain set up further north than currently forecast.
- The animation (Begins at 8 AM Monday and ends 6 AM Tuesday) below shows the line of showers/storms this morning diminishing before another wave moves in later this afternoon. We anticipate that the lull will allow us to destabilize thus increasing the risk for severe storms later. As you can see from the animation…the coverage of storms becomes fairly widespread by later this evening and into the overnight. Most of the activity should be clearing from west to east around 4 AM West through 9 AM East.
- For several days, computer models have been “hinting” at possible winter weather later this week into this weekend. While there is still A LOT of uncertainty, we wanted to make you aware that it is within our 7 day forecast period and we do have Rain/Snow in the forecast. We have Rain/Snow in the forecast because of just how uncertain the forecast is and how often models have been flip flopping on it.
- As of now, we do not have any accumulation in the forecast nor want to speculate on whether we will see any. What we can tell you is that we are looking at many many models (we call them ensembles…which is as many as 70+ models) and the numbers are all over the place (you might see some floating on Social Media this week). Because of that, our confidence is not very high on any one solution.
- One thing for certain is that Arctic air is coming south this week and will drop temperatures for us. Here is the forecast Low temps on Friday AM. Friday into Saturday at this point are the days in question.
Stay tuned to the weather today/tonight
Meteorologist in Charge
National Weather Service Atlanta/Peachtree City GA
Work: 770-486-1133 x 222